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COVID-19 has peaked in India, it can be controlled by February: Government panel

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India can control the spread of the pandemic with minimal active symptomatic cases by February-end in 2021 if preventive measures are followed, says India National Supermodel committee on covid-19.

The number of cases in India rise to peak stage, which is the world’s second largest country of most affected covid cases.The Committee was appointed by the Department of Science and Technology (DST).

The 10-member panel which conducted a study on “Progression of the COVID-19 Pandemic in India and Lockdown Impacts” has pointed out that with no lockdown, the pandemic would have hit India very hard with a peak load of over 1.40 crore cases arriving in June.

According to the mathematical supermodel findings, in actuality, the peak of active cases came in late September at around 10 lakhs. 

The committee said that if India had waited until May to impose the lockdown, the peak load of active cases would have been around 50 lakhs by June.

Vidyasagar, a member of the committee said “By this time, we were far better equipped to handle the pandemic in terms of diagnostics and vital equipment inventories. Therefore, the imposition of an early and comprehensive lockdown pushed the peak of cases far into the future and also reduced the peak load on the system. In short, the lockdown “flattened the curve.”

“India has one-sixth of the world’s population (one-fifth excluding China), and one-sixth of the reported cases. However, India accounts for only 10 pc of the world’s deaths, and its case fatality rate of less than 2 pc is among the lowest in the world. Avoiding congestion especially in closed spaces and special care of those above 65 years and children is even more significant. Personnel with co-morbidities need to be extra cautious,” the committee said.

The Committee will continue to work on many other issues concerning the current pandemic forecasting, as well as continue to develop robust models for the future pandemics.

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